Earlier in the year, I was asked to share from an industrial and manufacturing standpoint what was to come in 2026. From my perspective as a U.S. founder & operator between U.S. and West African markets, I believed then, and believe now, that 2026 would be the year when public and private actors would have to choose how to participate in a fundamentally different global market.
Since then, and for the past few months, in addition to regional instabilities carried forward, global markets have had to contend with significant disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most critical energy chokepoint, through which roughly 20% of global oil supply transits. This ongoing situation, thankfully nearing resolution, is a reminder that the systems we rely on are only as resilient as the people and organizations that sustain them. (Congressional Research Service, 2026; U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2026).
With G7 countries meeting earlier this year to shore up their critical mineral reserves, and the U.S. administration accelerating the pace of boosting domestic capacity, there remains the question of how best to engage all countries with exploitable reserves. Recognizing that our collective global growth depends on an interconnected web of large and small exporters and processors, is a tall ask for economies that have never had to concern themselves with feedstock supply. Not unlike the Strait of Hormuz, ignoring the silent but critical actor can deeply disrupt operations overnight.
This dynamic plays out at every level of the supply chain, not just between nations. Supply chain and procurement practitioners are sensitive to chokepoints. They often manifest deep in the supply chain among vendors producing unique capabilities. Easier cases to manage involve large companies holding a near monopoly on a particular product. Harder, and easier to miss, are smaller firms or modest operations providing a form-fit-function equivalent to an obsolete part, or a seemingly minor but necessary component with modest sales that, when unavailable, can derail the best-planned roadmap.
Across the few industries I have been privileged to cover, and recognizing that each category has its own dynamics, what I have observed is that suppliers lead with different approaches to their own supply chain assurance and security. Large producers can leverage established manufacturing capacity and approved alternate routings to meet regulatory requirements. Mid-sized suppliers often rely on a trusted network of brokers combined with audits to meet compliance. A narrower third category of firms pursues vertical integration. For manufacturing businesses under active ownership, understanding which tier your critical suppliers occupy is not a procurement exercise. It is a risk-adjusted valuation question.
I relate this to what we are currently observing at the macro level. In the critical mineral context, large ore producers are the focus of bilateral conversations, while smaller producers are not. And yet, on a collective basis, these smaller producers are the foundation of a resilient supply chain. The current global system assumes that ore supply from small producers, many of which are in Africa, will continue uninterrupted despite changing mining codes, nationalization risk, and growing ambitions among ore-producing countries to develop domestic processing industries.
The opportunity to capture more value has not gone unnoticed. We have observed leading mining countries impose significant export quotas on key minerals, ratify and enforce new mining codes, and drive efforts to centralize the oversight of artisanal mining. These actions have led to slowed exports, increased mining tax and dividend revenues, and in one of the more consequential episodes the temporary suspension of Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex operations in Mali (Reuters, 2025).
Changes in the supply chain order have also opened opportunities for the commercialization of both IP-protected and established technologies. Until a few years ago, these opportunities were seen as necessary from a technical know-how standpoint but quite unattractive financially, given the efficiency of the globally distributed network of fully amortized manufacturing infrastructure, just-in-time models, and near-uninterrupted supply of raw materials. The recent resurgence of, and additional R&D innovation around, technologies such as 3D printing and additive manufacturing is precisely driven by the realization that resiliency means investing in alternative manufacturing methods that may not be as cost-effective as traditional manufacturing, but are essential to ensuring a continuous supply of specialized products with minimal lead time.
With private entities around the world keen on exploring opportunities with the backing of development institutions, funds will need to reevaluate their risk appetite. The hope is that deep tech, hardware, and infrastructure-driven innovation, from oil refining to critical material transformation, will finally be seen as not only attractive but also truly essential as catalysts to move not just Western, but many other economies, toward a mutually beneficial model with global partners.
For investors with manufacturing exposure in processing or extractive industries, the collective risk of small producer disruption is not yet priced into most hold-period assumptions. The window to build resilience into portfolio strategy is narrowing. So, what silent actors are you watching in your supply chain or investment portfolio that the broader market is missing?
Marième Doukoure-Amoa is the founder of Senvoice, a venture focused on value chains in advanced manufacturing and powder metallurgy. She writes on the intersection of operational strategy, industrial systems, and emerging manufacturing technologies.
The ideas and arguments in this article are my own. AI was used to assist with drafting and editing.
References
Reuters. (2025, April 25). Exclusive: Barrick Gold contractors in Mali lay off staff amid government dispute — documents, sources. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/barrick-gold-contractors-mali-lay-off-staff-amid-government-dispute-documents-2025-04-25/
U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2026, April 7). Hormuz closure and related production outages are key drivers in EIA’s latest forecast. https://www.eia.gov/pressroom/releases/press586.php
Congressional Research Service. (2026). Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz: Impacts on oil, gas, and other commodities. https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R45281